TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

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2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

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40,511

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4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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Gold Up or Down - October 19, 4:45AM-5AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$287

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 4:45AM-5AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 4:45AM-5AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 5:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 4:45AM-5AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$287
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T08:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T08:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You'll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $285, and the total volume traded to date, which is $287. This allows you to see how actively traders are participating and how sentiment is evolving as we approach the resolution date. The dashboard provides a real-time view of the collective prediction on whether gold will move up or down.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are issuing predictions about gold’s future performance, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, offering a distinct signal. It’s common to see discrepancies between expert opinions and the collective prediction represented by the odds here. This difference can stem from varying methodologies, biases, or access to different information. Examining both sources provides a more comprehensive view of potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price movements are driven by new information and shifts in trader sentiment, creating a dynamic and responsive indicator of expectations. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to a constantly updated assessment of the likely outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified 4:45AM-5:00AM ET window on October 19th. Whether the price moves up or down will determine the winning outcome. The platform will verify the final price against established financial data sources to ensure an accurate and transparent resolution process.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 19, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like unexpected conflicts or shifts in international relations, can also drive investment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any significant news regarding major gold-producing countries or large institutional investors could shift sentiment and move the odds. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding potential price movements.