TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$260,393,102

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,894,304,386

408,643

Markets across

39,771

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,493

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$645

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 4:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$645
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T20:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T20:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market displays the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value between 4:15PM and 4:30PM ET on October 19th. It also provides a price history showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, along with the 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the total volume for this market is $645, and the 24-hour volume is $644. This allows participants to quickly assess market sentiment and track changes in expectations.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may base their predictions on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of economic data, geopolitical events, or simply varying levels of risk aversion among market participants. It's common to see this market anticipate changes before they are reflected in mainstream financial forecasts.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the gold price, as reported by a major financial index, moves up or down between 4:15PM and 4:30PM ET on October 19th. The final price movement will be assessed against established benchmarks to determine the winning outcome for this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 19, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, could influence investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major policy announcements, often drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, any surprising news related to major gold-holding countries or significant shifts in currency exchange rates could also impact trading activity and shift the probabilities within this market.