TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 19, 3:45PM-4PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$163

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 3:45PM-4PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 3:45PM-4PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 4:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 3:45PM-4PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$163
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T19:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T19:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value by the specified time. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has fluctuated. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $162, and the total volume traded to date, which is $163. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity surrounding the direction of the gold price.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are predicting a continued upward trend for gold, driven by geopolitical uncertainty and inflation concerns, this market’s participants may weigh those factors differently. It’s common to see discrepancies between expert opinions and the collective wisdom of the crowd, as traders incorporate a wider range of information and react to real-time events. This divergence can offer valuable insights into alternative viewpoints on the gold market’s future.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the implied probability you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform uses a dynamic pricing algorithm to ensure fair and efficient trading, and the current odds reflect the aggregated sentiment of all participants actively trading in this market. This differs from traditional exchanges where prices are set by market makers.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified timeframe, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET on October 19th. The market will determine whether the price moved up or down, and payouts will be awarded accordingly to those who correctly predicted the direction of the price movement. The final price change will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 19, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating conflicts or major political announcements, can also drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any surprising news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could trigger a substantial shift in market sentiment. Major currency fluctuations, especially involving the US dollar, will also likely impact trading activity in this market.