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416,910

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Gold Up or Down - October 19, 2:45AM-3AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$0

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 2:45AM-3AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 2:45AM-3AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 3:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 2:45AM-3AM ET

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Settled
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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T06:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T06:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets and how sentiment is evolving as the event approaches. The dashboard is designed to give you a quick and comprehensive overview of the market's activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer predictions based on economic models and reports, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their mouths are. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of data, unforeseen events, or simply a higher degree of risk aversion among analysts. It’s common to see this market anticipate changes before they are reflected in mainstream financial analysis, making it a valuable tool for gauging real-time expectations.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating a dynamic odds display. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the probability that traders assign to each outcome, and it’s constantly updated as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions. This creates a market-driven forecast that can be quite different from traditional polling or expert opinions.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the 2:45AM-3:00AM ET window on October 19th. An increase in the price will result in a payout for those who predicted ‘up’, while a decrease will favor those who predicted ‘down’. The precise determination will be based on established financial data sources and publicly available price records.

Several signals could significantly move this market before Oct 19, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected conflicts or shifts in international relations, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, significant changes in the US dollar's strength or unexpected announcements from major gold-producing nations could influence trader sentiment and shift the odds in either direction. Monitoring these factors will be key to understanding the market’s movements.