TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

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4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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Gold Up or Down - October 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$14

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 2:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T06:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T06:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 2:15AM and 2:30AM ET on October 19th. It also displays the price history of the market, showing how probabilities have shifted over time. You’ll find the total volume traded in this market, currently at $14, and the 24-hour volume, which is $14. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the potential for price fluctuations.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic indicators and geopolitical events to predict gold’s trajectory, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of data or the inclusion of factors not typically considered by analysts. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts before they are reflected in mainstream financial commentary.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the price of gold will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability of gold increasing in value is reflected in the price of the 'Up' contracts, while the 'Down' contracts reflect the probability of a price decrease.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 2:15AM and 2:30AM ET on October 19th. If the price is higher at 2:30AM ET than at 2:15AM ET, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The determination will rely on established financial data sources.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or interest rate decisions from central banks, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, significant shifts in the US dollar’s strength or changes in investor sentiment towards risk assets could influence trading activity in this market. Any surprise announcements related to gold production or central bank gold reserves could also be catalysts.