TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 19, 1:45PM-2PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$127

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 1:45PM-2PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 1:45PM-2PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 2:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 1:45PM-2PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$127
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T17:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T17:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value by October 19th. You'll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $125. The total volume for this market is $127. This allows you to see how actively traders are participating and where the sentiment lies regarding the future direction of gold.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend in gold prices due to geopolitical uncertainty, this market shows a more nuanced view. It’s common to see discrepancies between prediction market probabilities and expert opinions, as prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of many individuals, potentially identifying factors not fully considered in conventional analysis. This market provides a real-time assessment of what traders believe will happen, independent of published reports.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective expectations of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that the market assigns to the outcome, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood of an increase in the gold price. This dynamic pricing allows for a constantly updated assessment of the market’s sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 1:45 PM and 2:00 PM ET on October 19th. If the price is higher at 2:00 PM ET than at 1:45 PM ET, the 'Up' outcome will prevail; otherwise, the 'Down' outcome will be considered the result. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 19, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating conflicts or shifts in international trade relations, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Unexpected news regarding central bank gold reserves or significant movements in the US dollar could also influence trading activity in this market. Any surprise announcements related to these factors could cause substantial shifts in the odds.