TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$0

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 1:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T17:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T17:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price between 1:30PM and 1:45PM ET on October 19th. You’ll find a price history chart showing how probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the total volume traded in this market, currently at $0, and the 24-hour volume, which is $0. This allows you to see how traders are reacting to news and information leading up to the event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer price targets based on economic models, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their mouth is. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of data, access to non-public information, or simply varying risk appetites. It’s common to see this market anticipate movements before they’re reflected in mainstream analyst opinions, or to disagree with the consensus view.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'up' contract, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date collective assessment of the likely outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 1:30PM and 1:45PM ET on October 19th. If the price is higher at 1:45PM ET than at 1:30PM ET, the 'up' outcome will win. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 19, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets like gold. Furthermore, any surprising news regarding central bank policies, particularly those related to interest rates, could influence trading activity. Even significant shifts in the US dollar’s strength could play a role in the price movement.