TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.1b

24H VOL:

$172,394,893

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2,983,476,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,821,572,886

404,136

Markets across

40,075

events

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4,369

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 19, 12PM-12:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$117

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 12PM-12:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 12PM-12:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 12:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 12PM-12:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$117
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T16:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T16:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $115, and the total volume traded to date, which is $117. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets on the direction of the gold price during the specified timeframe.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic indicators and geopolitical events to predict gold price movements, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly in short-term predictions, as traders react quickly to new information and changing sentiment. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market expectations and potential surprises.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified period. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants on Predict, and it’s constantly updated as new trades are executed. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market remains responsive to new information and evolving sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 12:00 PM ET and 12:15 PM ET on October 19th. If the price is higher at 12:15 PM ET than at 12:00 PM ET, the “Up” outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the “Down” outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 19, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate decisions, can have a substantial impact. Any surprise announcements or developments in these areas could lead to rapid shifts in trader sentiment and, consequently, the odds in this market.