TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 19, 12:45PM-1PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$143

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 12:45PM-1PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 12:45PM-1PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 1:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 12:45PM-1PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$143
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T16:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T16:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $142, and the total volume traded to date, which is $143. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likely direction of the gold price before the specified time. The dashboard helps visualize market sentiment and potential shifts in expectations.

Currently, the collective wisdom of the crowd on Predict offers a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts predict gold price fluctuations based on economic indicators and geopolitical events, this market aggregates the insights of numerous individual traders. This often results in a different probability assessment than you might find in a typical poll of experts. It’s valuable to consider both viewpoints when forming your own opinion on the potential movement of the gold price.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down by the specified time. The price of these contracts reflects the probability of each outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the market’s collective expectation, and changes in price reflect new information or shifts in sentiment among traders. This dynamic pricing ensures the market remains responsive to evolving conditions.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 12:45 PM ET and 1:00 PM ET on October 19th. If the price is higher at 1:00 PM ET than at 12:45 PM ET, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 19, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating conflicts or major political developments, can also drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, significant shifts in the US dollar’s strength or changes in global risk appetite could also cause substantial movements in the gold price and, consequently, in this market.