TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$323,326,361

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,969,435,260

419,363

Markets across

40,411

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

VS.

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$148

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 12:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$148
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T16:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T16:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 12:30PM and 12:45PM ET on October 19th. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $145. The total volume for this market is $148, indicating the overall interest from traders. This information allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and trading activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer specific price targets based on economic indicators and geopolitical events, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of informed opinions. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially in the short term, as traders react to real-time information and evolving sentiment. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market expectations and potential surprises.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified time window. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants, and changes rapidly as new information becomes available or sentiment shifts. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to dynamic price discovery.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 12:30PM and 12:45PM ET on October 19th. If the price is higher at 12:45PM than at 12:30PM, the 'Up' outcome will prevail; conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will be considered the result. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 19, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major policy announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, shifts in the US dollar’s strength or changes in interest rate expectations can influence investor sentiment towards gold. Any surprising news related to major gold-holding countries or significant trading activity could also cause a notable price swing.