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420,368

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Gold Up or Down - October 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$146

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 12:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$146
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T16:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T16:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 12:15PM and 12:30PM ET on October 19th. You'll find a dynamic display of the odds, reflecting what traders are willing to bet, as well as a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The 24-hour volume is also prominently displayed, indicating the amount of trading activity in this market. Currently, the total volume is $145.

Currently, analysts are split on the short-term direction of gold, with some predicting a slight increase due to geopolitical uncertainty and others forecasting a decline based on recent interest rate hikes. This market allows you to compare the wisdom of the crowd to these expert opinions. If the prediction market odds significantly diverge from analyst forecasts, it could signal that traders possess information or insights not yet reflected in traditional analysis. It’s a fascinating way to gauge overall market sentiment regarding gold’s near-term performance.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 12:15PM and 12:30PM ET on October 19th. If the price is higher at 12:30PM than at 12:15PM, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 19, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, could impact investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or surprise political developments, often drive demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, any significant news regarding interest rate policies from the Federal Reserve could cause a shift in the gold price. A major announcement from a central bank or a surprise move in currency markets could also move this market.