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420,368

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Gold Up or Down - October 19, 11AM-11:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$90

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 11AM-11:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 11AM-11:15AM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 11:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 11AM-11:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$90
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T15:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T15:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 11:00 AM and 11:15 AM ET on October 19th. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $91. The total volume for this market is $90, indicating the overall interest in this short-term price prediction. This information helps traders assess market sentiment and make informed decisions.

Currently, it's important to note that prediction market odds reflect the collective wisdom of traders on Predict, while analyst forecasts represent individual opinions. Often, this market will diverge from traditional polls or expert predictions, potentially offering a different perspective on the likely gold price movement. Some analysts predict a slight increase due to recent economic data, but this market’s traders may have a different view based on their own analysis and risk assessment. Comparing these viewpoints can provide a more comprehensive understanding of potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the odds reflect the aggregated sentiment of all participants trading on Predict, and can shift rapidly as new information becomes available or trading volume increases. The current implied probabilities are visible on the market dashboard.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 11:00 AM and 11:15 AM ET on October 19th. If the price is higher at 11:15 AM ET than at 11:00 AM ET, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals could significantly move this market before Oct 19, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like shifts in international relations or unexpected political announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, major news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could influence investor sentiment and trading activity in this market. Any surprising developments in the currency markets, especially the US dollar, could also cause a shift in the odds.