TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$259

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 1:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$259
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T17:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T17:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price between 1:15PM and 1:30PM ET on October 19th. You’ll find a price history chart illustrating how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $256. The total volume for this market is $259. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential opportunities.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend due to geopolitical instability, this market shows a more nuanced view, with traders weighing a variety of factors. It’s common to see discrepancies between prediction markets and polls or analyst opinions, as markets aggregate diverse information and incentivize accurate forecasting through financial rewards. This difference highlights the potential value of prediction markets as a forward-looking indicator.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that the market participants assign to the gold price increasing, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood of an upward movement.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official gold price change between 1:15 PM and 1:30 PM ET on October 19th. The market will determine whether the price moved up or down during that period, and traders holding the corresponding contracts will be paid out accordingly. It’s important to monitor news and market data leading up to this time.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 19, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, any surprising news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could influence investor sentiment and shift the odds within this market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for informed trading.