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416,910

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5

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Gold Up or Down - October 19, 11:45AM-12PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$91

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 11:45AM-12PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 11:45AM-12PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 12:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 11:45AM-12PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$91
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T15:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T15:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price between 11:45 AM and 12:00 PM ET on October 19th. You’ll find a visual representation of the probabilities assigned to each outcome, as well as a price history chart illustrating how the market has fluctuated over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour volume, currently at $90, and the total volume traded, which is $91. This provides a comprehensive overview of market sentiment and activity.

Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and fundamental analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, particularly when unforeseen events or sentiment shifts occur. Currently, it’s important to note that this market’s probabilities are shaped by traders’ expectations, which may or may not align with the consensus view of financial analysts covering gold.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. These odds are determined solely by the actions of traders on Predict and reflect their collective assessment of the likelihood of each outcome. There is no external influence on the pricing mechanism within this market.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 11:45 AM and 12:00 PM ET on October 19th. If the price is higher at 12:00 PM ET than at 11:45 AM ET, the ‘Up’ outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the ‘Down’ outcome will be considered correct. The precise price data used for verification will be sourced from established financial data providers.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 19, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including political instability or major international developments, can also drive safe-haven demand for gold. Furthermore, any surprising announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy could influence investor sentiment. Finally, significant shifts in the US dollar’s strength or weakness will likely affect the gold price, and therefore, this market.