TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$179

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 11:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$179
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T15:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T15:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market displays the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. It also tracks the total volume traded, currently at $179, and the 24-hour volume, which is $178. You can view a price history chart to see how the market has been pricing in different outcomes over time. This allows traders to assess market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities related to the anticipated direction of gold.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect the collective wisdom of traders on Predict. These odds often differ from traditional analyst forecasts, as they represent a real-money view of the likely outcome. Analysts may focus on fundamental factors, while this market incorporates a broader range of information, including sentiment and unexpected events. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially when there's significant uncertainty surrounding the event. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market expectations and potential biases.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating an implied probability for each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'up' contracts, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the aggregated intelligence of the crowd.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 11:15 AM ET and 11:30 AM ET on October 19th. The direction of the price movement—whether it increases or decreases—will determine which outcome is considered correct. This ensures a transparent and objective assessment of the market's predictive accuracy.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 19, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, any surprising news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could trigger a substantial price movement. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in this market.