TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 19, 10:45PM-11PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$9

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 10:45PM-11PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 10:45PM-11PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 11:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 10:45PM-11PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$9
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T02:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T02:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $9, and the total volume traded to date, which is $9. This information provides a snapshot of trader sentiment and market activity surrounding the anticipated price movement of gold. The dashboard is updated continuously to reflect the latest trading activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer specific price targets based on economic indicators and geopolitical events, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of perspectives and potential outcomes. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, risk tolerances, or access to information. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into the collective assessment of the gold price movement, providing a unique counterpoint to conventional financial analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants on Predict and represents the market’s expectation of the outcome. Higher demand for the 'up' contract, for example, will drive its price higher, indicating a greater likelihood of a price increase.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the designated timeframe – 10:45 PM to 11:00 PM ET on October 19th. An increase in price will determine a positive outcome, while a decrease will determine a negative outcome. The final price movement will be sourced from established financial data providers to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 20, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets like gold. Furthermore, shifts in interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve or other central banks could trigger price movements. Any surprise announcements related to global economic growth or major currency fluctuations could also contribute to volatility in this market.