TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 19, 10:45AM-11AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$244

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 10:45AM-11AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 10:45AM-11AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 11:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 10:45AM-11AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$244
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T14:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T14:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 10:45AM and 11:00AM ET on October 19th. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $244. Total volume for this market is $244. This allows you to see how traders are positioning themselves and gauge the overall sentiment surrounding potential gold price fluctuations during that specific timeframe.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts regarding gold’s short-term movement. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend due to geopolitical instability, this market suggests a more nuanced outlook. It’s important to remember that prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information, while analyst forecasts often rely on individual assessments and models. This difference highlights the unique insights offered by this market.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified period. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective judgment of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments to probabilities as new information becomes available, offering a constantly updated assessment of potential gold price movement.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 10:45AM and 11:00AM ET on October 19th. If the price is higher at 11:00AM ET than at 10:45AM ET, the ‘Up’ outcome will prevail; otherwise, the ‘Down’ outcome will be considered the result. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 19, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or unexpected policy changes from major economies, are also key catalysts. Furthermore, any significant news regarding central bank monetary policy, particularly related to interest rates, could influence investor sentiment and drive trading activity in this market. A surprise announcement from a major gold-producing nation could also shift the odds.