TOTAL VOLUME:

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$245,801,863

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$1,902,097,102

417,059

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4,415

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5

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37%

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Gold Up or Down - October 18, 8PM-8:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$0

Gold Up or Down - October 18, 8PM-8:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 18, 8PM-8:15PM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 18, 2026

Closed: Oct 18, 8:15 PM EST

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Gold Up or Down - October 18, 8PM-8:15PM ET

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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T00:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T00:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified window. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. The total volume traded to date is $0. This information helps traders understand market sentiment and make informed decisions about whether to buy or sell contracts predicting the direction of gold’s price.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are issuing predictions about gold's performance, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their mouth is. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market diverge from polls and expert opinions, especially when anticipating short-term price fluctuations, as traders react to rapidly evolving news and data.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether gold will be up or down during the specified time frame. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating an implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants and provides a real-time assessment of the market’s expectations for gold’s price movement.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 8:00 PM and 8:15 PM Eastern Time on October 18th. A price increase will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Up,' while a price decrease will favor those who predicted 'Down.' The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 19, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major policy announcements, can also drive investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets like gold. Furthermore, any significant shifts in interest rate expectations or the strength of the US dollar could trigger substantial price movements, leading to changes in the odds within this market. Keep an eye on these developments for potential trading opportunities.