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419,492

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Gold Up or Down - October 18, 8:45PM-9PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$0

Gold Up or Down - October 18, 8:45PM-9PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 18, 8:45PM-9PM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 18, 2026

Closed: Oct 18, 9:00 PM EST

predict

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Gold Up or Down - October 18, 8:45PM-9PM ET

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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T00:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T00:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 8:45 PM and 9:00 PM ET on October 18th. It also displays the price history of the market, showing how probabilities have shifted over time. You can view the total volume traded in this market, currently at $0, as well as the 24-hour volume, which is $0. This provides a real-time overview of how traders are assessing the potential for price movement.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective intelligence. Often, this market aggregates information from a wider range of sources and perspectives than traditional analyst reports. While analysts may offer specific price targets, the probabilities reflected in this market represent a broader assessment of potential outcomes. If a significant discrepancy exists between the market’s implied probability and expert opinions, it could indicate that traders possess unique information or interpret available data differently than analysts.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. The more traders believe gold will rise, the higher the price of 'up' contracts will become, and vice versa.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 8:45 PM and 9:00 PM ET on October 18th. If the price is higher at 9:00 PM ET than at 8:45 PM ET, the 'up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 19, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy or interest rate changes could influence investor sentiment. Any surprise news related to major gold-holding nations or large institutional investors could also cause a shift in the probabilities reflected in this market.