TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 18, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$58

Gold Up or Down - October 18, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 18, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 18, 2026

Closed: Oct 18, 7:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 18, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$58
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-18T23:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-18T23:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price, along with a price history chart showing how probabilities have shifted over time. You can also view the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $58, and the total market volume, which is $58. This provides a clear picture of how traders are positioning themselves and the overall interest in this event. The dashboard is updated in real-time to reflect the latest trading activity.

Currently, the collective prediction from this market offers a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While many analysts are predicting a continued upward trend, the probabilities reflected in this market suggest a more nuanced outlook. It’s important to remember that analyst predictions are often based on economic models and fundamental analysis, whereas this market reflects the wisdom of the crowd and incorporates a wider range of information, including sentiment and real-time events. This difference in approach can lead to valuable insights.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants, and changes rapidly as new information becomes available. Volume and order flow are key indicators to watch when evaluating the market's current pricing.

This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 7:30 PM and 7:45 PM Eastern Time on October 18th. If the price is higher at 7:45 PM ET than at 7:30 PM ET, the ‘Up’ outcome will win. Conversely, if the price is lower, the ‘Down’ outcome will win. The precise price data will be sourced from a reputable financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 18, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or trade tensions, can also drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any significant news regarding central bank policies, particularly those related to interest rates, could trigger a shift in market sentiment. Monitoring these events and their potential impact on gold is crucial for understanding the dynamics of this market.