TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

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2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

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4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$0

Gold Up or Down - October 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 18, 2026

Closed: Oct 18, 7:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET

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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-18T23:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-18T23:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of the probabilities assigned to each outcome by traders, along with a price history chart showing how the market has fluctuated. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total market volume, which is $0. This information provides a real-time overview of market sentiment regarding the short-term direction of gold.

Currently, it's important to note that prediction market odds often reflect a different kind of information than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on economic models and fundamental analysis, this market aggregates the beliefs of a diverse group of traders. Often, the market can provide an early signal of potential price movements, incorporating information that may not be fully reflected in standard forecasts. It’s useful to compare the implied probability of a price increase or decrease in this market with the consensus view of financial analysts covering gold.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified period. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that traders assign to the gold price increasing, with higher prices suggesting a greater expectation of an upward movement. The market’s liquidity, as indicated by the trading volume, also influences price discovery.

This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 7:15 PM ET and 7:30 PM ET on October 18th. If the price is higher at 7:30 PM ET than at 7:15 PM ET, the 'Up' outcome will win. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will be considered the winner. The final price will be sourced from a reputable financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 18, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global stability or major political announcements, can also drive investor sentiment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any significant news regarding central bank policies, particularly those related to interest rates, could cause substantial price fluctuations. Changes in the US dollar’s strength or weakness are also key signals to watch, as gold is typically priced in dollars.