TOTAL VOLUME:

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$1,885,293,300

410,482

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5

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Gold Up or Down - October 18, 6:45PM-7PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$10

Gold Up or Down - October 18, 6:45PM-7PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 18, 6:45PM-7PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 18, 2026

Closed: Oct 18, 7:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 18, 6:45PM-7PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-18T22:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-18T22:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, the price history of these predictions, and the 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the total volume for this market is $10, with $10 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows participants to see how the crowd's wisdom is evolving and identify potential trading opportunities. The dashboard provides a real-time view of market sentiment regarding the short-term direction of the gold price.

Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the beliefs of a diverse group of traders. This often leads to odds that are more responsive to emerging information and less prone to biases found in individual analyst opinions. It’s common to see discrepancies between the implied probability from this market and the consensus view of financial analysts regarding gold’s future price movement.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective judgment of the participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of the outcome occurring, and traders can adjust their positions as new information becomes available. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 6:45 PM ET and 7:00 PM ET on October 18th. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases or remains unchanged, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 18, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, could shift investor sentiment towards gold as a safe haven asset. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or unexpected policy changes, also tend to drive gold prices. Furthermore, statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate decisions, can have a substantial impact. Any surprise announcements or developments in these areas could lead to substantial price movements and volatility in this market.