TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$323,326,361

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2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,969,435,260

419,363

Markets across

40,411

events

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4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$0

Gold Up or Down - October 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 18, 2026

Closed: Oct 18, 6:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET

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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-18T22:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-18T22:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You can also see the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the potential direction of the gold price before Oct 18, 2026.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are publishing predictions about gold’s trajectory, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their mouths are. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market diverge from polls and expert opinions, offering a unique signal based on actual financial commitment.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the aggregated sentiment of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing ensures that the odds closely mirror the perceived probability of each outcome, and provides a forward-looking indicator of market expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the 6:30PM-6:45PM ET window on October 18th. If the price is higher than its starting point at 6:30PM ET, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; if it is lower, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 18, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like unexpected conflicts or shifts in international relations, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, significant news regarding major gold-producing countries or large institutional investors could influence trading activity in this market.