TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

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2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

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4,340

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5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$0

Gold Up or Down - October 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 18, 2026

Closed: Oct 18, 11:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET

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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T03:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T03:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in price between 11:15 PM and 11:30 PM ET on October 18th. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. Total volume for this market is $0. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different outlook than many traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend due to geopolitical uncertainty, this market suggests a more nuanced expectation. It's important to remember that analyst forecasts are often based on fundamental analysis and economic models, while this market represents the collective wisdom of traders responding to real-time information and their own risk assessments. The comparison highlights the potential for prediction markets to offer a distinct perspective.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect changing expectations about the future gold price movement.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 11:15 PM and 11:30 PM ET on October 18th. If the price is higher at 11:30 PM ET than at 11:15 PM ET, the 'Up' outcome will prevail; otherwise, the 'Down' outcome will be considered the result.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, could impact investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major policy announcements, often drive safe-haven demand for gold. Additionally, any significant shifts in the US dollar’s strength or changes in interest rate expectations could also move this market. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding potential price fluctuations.