TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 18, 10PM-10:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$0

Gold Up or Down - October 18, 10PM-10:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 18, 10PM-10:15PM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 18, 2026

Closed: Oct 18, 10:15 PM EST

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Gold Up or Down - October 18, 10PM-10:15PM ET

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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T02:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T02:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, as well as a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume displayed, indicating how much activity there has been in this market recently. Currently, the total volume is $0 and the 24-hour volume is $0. This information provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of different outcomes.

Currently, analysts are divided on the short-term direction of gold, with some predicting a slight increase due to geopolitical uncertainty and others forecasting a decline based on rising interest rates. This market offers a different perspective, aggregating the wisdom of the crowd to produce a probability-based forecast. While analyst opinions can be valuable, they are often subject to individual biases. The collective predictions reflected in this market can provide a more nuanced and potentially accurate view of future price movements, representing a dynamic consensus.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants, and changes rapidly as new information becomes available or as traders adjust their positions. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a constantly updated forecast.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 10:00 PM and 10:15 PM ET on October 18th. If the price increases during that period, the ‘Up’ outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price decreases, the ‘Down’ outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 19, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any significant shifts in interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve could trigger price movements. Monitoring these events and their potential impact on investor sentiment will be crucial for understanding fluctuations in this market.