TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 18, 10:45PM-11PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$0

Gold Up or Down - October 18, 10:45PM-11PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 18, 10:45PM-11PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 18, 2026

Closed: Oct 18, 11:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 18, 10:45PM-11PM ET

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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T02:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T02:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This provides a clear visualization of market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated price movement of gold. The dashboard is updated in real-time, reflecting the latest predictions from traders.

Currently, prediction market odds often present a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer specific price targets based on economic indicators and geopolitical events, this market reflects the collective judgment of individuals putting their money where their mouth is. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets can incorporate a wider range of information and react more quickly to new developments than slower-moving analyst reports. This difference in approach can provide valuable insights when evaluating potential gold price movements.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 10:45 PM and 11:00 PM ET on October 18th. If the price is higher at 11:00 PM ET than at 10:45 PM ET, the 'up' outcome will win; otherwise, the 'down' outcome will win. The exact price used for determination will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 19, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major policy changes, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy, particularly concerning interest rates, are closely watched by gold traders. Any surprising news related to these areas could lead to substantial shifts in the odds within this market, as traders adjust their predictions accordingly.