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419,363

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Gold Up or Down - October 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$37

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 8:45 AM EST

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Gold Up or Down - October 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$37
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T12:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T12:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the implied probability of the price of gold increasing or decreasing between 8:30 AM and 8:45 AM ET on October 16th. You’ll find a history of the market’s odds, allowing you to see how sentiment has shifted over time. Currently, the total volume traded in this market is $37, with $37 traded in the last 24 hours. This provides a snapshot of current trader interest and activity.

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts. However, generally, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than typical polls or analyst reports. Analysts often provide point estimates or directional guidance, while this market represents a collective judgment about the probability of a specific outcome. If analyst forecasts consistently diverge from the implied probabilities in this market, it could indicate differing expectations about the factors influencing gold prices.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the probability that traders assign to each outcome, and this probability changes as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 8:30 AM and 8:45 AM ET on October 16th. If the price is higher at 8:45 AM ET than at 8:30 AM ET, the 'Gold Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Gold Down' outcome will be considered correct.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, changes in interest rate expectations or statements from central banks could influence investor sentiment and subsequently, the price of gold. Any surprise news related to major gold-holding countries or significant shifts in currency valuations could also affect this market.