TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 16, 4:45PM-5PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$126

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 4:45PM-5PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 4:45PM-5PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 5:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 4:45PM-5PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$126
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T20:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T20:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $126, and the total volume traded to date, which is $126. This provides a clear view of market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated direction of the gold price. The dashboard helps traders understand where the crowd stands and identify potential opportunities.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently issue price targets and recommendations based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of information and potential catalysts. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of economic data, geopolitical events, or simply varying risk appetites. It’s common to see prediction markets anticipate shifts before they are reflected in mainstream analyst opinions, offering a unique signal.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe gold will rise, the higher the 'yes' contract price will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing reflects the collective intelligence of the market participants.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the defined 4:45PM-5PM ET window on October 16th. If the price is higher at 5PM ET than at 4:45PM ET, the 'up' outcome prevails. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'down' outcome is considered the result. The final price will be sourced from established financial data providers.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 16, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often trigger price movements in gold. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve or other central banks could impact the attractiveness of gold relative to other investments. Any surprise announcements related to major gold-producing countries could also shift market sentiment.