TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$37

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 4:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$37
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T20:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T20:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value between 4:30PM and 4:45PM ET on October 16. You’ll find a history of how these probabilities have shifted over time, alongside the total volume traded in this market, currently at $37, and the 24-hour volume, which is $37. This allows you to see how the crowd’s expectations are evolving as new information becomes available and to gauge the intensity of trading activity.

Currently, it’s difficult to draw direct comparisons between the predictions reflected in this market and traditional analyst forecasts. However, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than typical analyst reports, potentially leading to different conclusions. While analysts may focus on fundamental economic factors, this market reflects the collective judgment of traders considering all available information, including news events, technical indicators, and even sentiment. It’s important to remember that both approaches have their strengths and weaknesses as indicators of future price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the gold price will move up or down within the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective wisdom of those trading, and changes rapidly as new information emerges. The volume traded provides insight into the confidence level behind the current price.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 4:30PM and 4:45PM ET on October 16. If the price is higher at 4:45PM ET than at 4:30PM ET, the 'Gold Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, 'Gold Down' will be the winning outcome. The final price will be sourced from a reputable financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 16, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, could influence investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major policy announcements, often drive demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, any surprising news related to major gold-holding countries or significant shifts in currency exchange rates could impact the price. Even unexpected statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy could trigger price fluctuations and, consequently, shifts in this market.