TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$21

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 3:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$21
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T19:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T19:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities for gold to move up or down between 3:30PM and 3:45PM ET on October 16th. You'll find a history of how these probabilities have shifted over time, along with the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $21. The total volume for this market is $21. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and see how confidence in either outcome is evolving as the event approaches.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the probabilities reflected in this market to traditional analyst forecasts. However, broadly speaking, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than typical polls or individual analyst predictions. If analysts are largely predicting a gold price increase, we might expect to see a higher probability assigned to 'Gold Up' in this market. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information, making this market a valuable independent indicator of potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the odds you see are a real-time assessment of probability, driven by actual trading activity, rather than a static prediction.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the gold price, as reported by a major financial data provider, moved up or down between 3:30PM and 3:45PM ET on October 16th. The precise price change that constitutes an 'up' or 'down' movement is defined within the market’s rules on Predict.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major policy announcements from central banks, could also drive volatility. Even shifts in investor sentiment, perhaps triggered by news related to safe-haven assets or currency fluctuations, could move the odds. Monitoring these developments will be key to understanding how this market evolves leading up to Oct 16, 2026.