TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$144

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 1:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$144
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T17:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T17:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value by Oct 16, 2026. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $144. The total volume for this market is $144. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets on the direction of gold’s price.

Currently, prediction market odds represent the collective wisdom of traders on Predict. These odds often differ from traditional analyst forecasts, as they reflect a broader range of information and incentives. While analysts may focus on fundamental economic data, this market incorporates real-time news, sentiment, and even unexpected events. It's common to see discrepancies, particularly in volatile markets, as traders react quickly to new information and adjust their positions accordingly. This provides a unique perspective beyond standard financial analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a probability distribution. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the market’s consensus expectation, and traders can profit by accurately predicting the outcome. This dynamic pricing ensures the market remains responsive to new information and evolving sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 1:30 PM ET and 1:45 PM ET on October 16th. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will win; if it decreases, the 'Down' outcome will win. The final price movement will be sourced from a reputable financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 16, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve or other central banks could influence investor sentiment. Any surprising news related to major gold-producing countries or significant shifts in currency exchange rates could also play a role.