TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 16, 12:45PM-1PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$0

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 12:45PM-1PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 12:45PM-1PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 1:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 12:45PM-1PM ET

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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T16:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T16:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This allows you to see how actively traders are participating and gauge the market’s sentiment regarding the future direction of gold prices. The dashboard provides a real-time view of the collective prediction.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are predicting a continued upward trend for gold due to global economic uncertainty, this market presents a more nuanced view, incorporating the wisdom of the crowd. It’s common to see discrepancies between expert opinions and the aggregated predictions found here, as the market can quickly adapt to new information and changing sentiment. This divergence highlights the potential value of considering prediction market data alongside conventional analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of gold increasing in value, and changes in this price signal shifts in market sentiment. This dynamic pricing ensures the market remains responsive to new information.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 12:45 PM ET and 1:00 PM ET on October 16th. If the price is higher at 1:00 PM ET than at 12:45 PM ET, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; otherwise, the 'Down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from established financial data providers.

Several key signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 16, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or unexpected political developments, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, significant shifts in the US dollar’s strength or changes in global risk appetite could trigger substantial price movements and, consequently, impact trading activity in this market.