TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

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$271,200,656

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2,984,640,614

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$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

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4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$0

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 1:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

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Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T17:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T17:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 1:15PM and 1:30PM ET on October 16th. You’ll find a visual representation of these odds, along with a price history showing how they’ve changed over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This provides a quick overview of market sentiment and activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or ranges for gold’s price movement, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of many traders, representing a probability distribution of potential outcomes. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can incorporate a wider range of information and react more quickly to new developments. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market expectations and potential biases.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price reflects the combined judgment of all participants, and is constantly updated as new information becomes available. The current implied probability of gold going up or down is determined by the relative prices of the 'yes' and 'no' contracts.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 1:15PM and 1:30PM ET on October 16th. If the price increases during that window, the 'Gold Up' outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases or remains the same, the 'Gold Down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, any news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could trigger price movements. Finally, major announcements from key players in the gold market itself could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market.