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404,136

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Gold Up or Down - October 16, 10AM-10:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$12

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 10AM-10:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 10AM-10:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 10:15 AM EST

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Gold Up or Down - October 16, 10AM-10:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$12
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T14:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T14:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market displays the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in price between 10:00 AM and 10:15 AM ET on October 16th. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time. The dashboard also shows the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $11, and the total overall volume traded to date, which is $12. This provides a quick snapshot of market activity and sentiment.

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts. However, generally, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional polls or analyst reports. While analysts may focus on fundamental economic factors, this market reflects the collective judgment of traders considering numerous variables, including technical analysis, news events, and even sentiment. If analysts are predicting a strong upward trend in gold, we might expect to see higher probabilities assigned to 'Gold Up' in this market, but discrepancies can and do occur.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the implied probabilities you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, reacting to new information and influencing the market’s overall assessment. This dynamic process aims to reflect the most accurate collective prediction possible.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 10:00 AM and 10:15 AM ET on October 16th. If the price is higher at 10:15 AM than at 10:00 AM, the 'Gold Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, 'Gold Down' will be the winning outcome. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly impact the gold price movement market. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often trigger volatility in gold. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rates, could influence market sentiment. Any surprise news related to major gold-producing countries or significant shifts in currency exchange rates could also move this market.