TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

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2,984,028,936

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$1,869,293,526

411,051

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PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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Gold Up or Down - October 15, 5PM-5:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$0

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 5PM-5:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 5PM-5:15PM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 5:15 PM EST

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 5PM-5:15PM ET

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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T21:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T21:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price market tracks the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has priced in information over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This provides a comprehensive overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding the future direction of gold.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are publishing predictions about the gold price, this market allows traders to express their beliefs with real capital. This can lead to a more accurate signal, as traders are incentivized to be correct. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, particularly when there’s significant uncertainty or disagreement about the factors influencing gold’s price. This market reflects the collective wisdom of those willing to put their money where their mouth is.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the implied probabilities you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price reflects the aggregated expectations of all participants, and changes rapidly as new information becomes available or sentiment shifts. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of the likelihood of different outcomes.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between the opening price on October 15th and the closing price at 5:15 PM ET on the same day. The market will determine whether the price went up or down during that 15-minute window. This allows for a clear and objective determination of the outcome based on established market data.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 15, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like unexpected political instability or shifts in international trade relations, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve or other central banks are closely watched by gold traders. Any news that affects the perceived risk appetite of investors or the strength of the US dollar could also influence the direction of this market.