TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.1b

24H VOL:

$172,394,893

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,983,476,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,821,572,886

404,136

Markets across

40,075

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,369

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$0

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 5:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T21:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T21:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value by Oct 15, 2026. You’ll find a visual representation of where traders are placing their bets, along with the price history of the market itself. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This allows you to quickly gauge market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated price shift.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental economic indicators and historical trends, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of data, unexpected events, or simply the collective intuition of traders. It's important to consider both viewpoints when forming your own opinion on the likely direction of the gold price.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether gold will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of gold increasing in value by the specified time. Higher prices suggest greater confidence in an upward movement, while lower prices indicate a stronger belief in a decline.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the gold price, as reported by a widely recognized financial data provider, has increased or decreased during the specified 5:30PM-5:45PM ET window on October 15th. The final price movement will be assessed against the price at the start of that timeframe to determine the winning outcome for this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 15, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, are likely to influence investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical tensions or major global events could also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, any significant shifts in monetary policy by central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, could impact the gold price. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding potential price movements in this market.