TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$0

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 5:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET

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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T21:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T21:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $0, and the total volume traded to date, at $0. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of price changes and the level of interest in this particular market. The dashboard is designed to give you a clear picture of market sentiment.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic indicators and fundamental analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a broader range of information and potential catalysts. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, particularly in the short term. Examining these differences can be valuable, as the market’s collective prediction sometimes anticipates shifts in sentiment or unforeseen events that analysts haven’t fully accounted for. This market offers a unique, forward-looking perspective.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 5:15 PM and 5:30 PM Eastern Time on October 15th. If the price is higher at 5:30 PM than at 5:15 PM, the 'up' outcome will win. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 15, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive safe-haven demand for gold. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations or statements from central banks can influence investor sentiment. Even unexpected news related to major gold-producing countries or significant shifts in currency exchange rates could create volatility and affect the odds in this market.