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413,109

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Gold Up or Down - October 15, 4:45PM-5PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$190

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 4:45PM-5PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 4:45PM-5PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 5:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 4:45PM-5PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$190
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T20:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T20:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $186, and the total volume traded to date, which is $190. This data allows you to see how traders are positioning themselves and gauge the market’s sentiment regarding the future direction of the gold price. The dashboard provides a real-time view of the collective prediction.

Currently, analysts are divided on the short-term outlook for gold, with some predicting a continued rise due to geopolitical uncertainty and inflation concerns, while others anticipate a correction. This market offers a different perspective, reflecting the wisdom of the crowd. It aggregates the individual predictions of many traders, potentially offering a more accurate forecast than any single analyst. The current odds on Predict represent a collective assessment of these factors, and may align with or diverge from traditional financial forecasts.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the odds you see are a direct result of traders’ willingness to pay for a position, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the potential price movement. The market’s efficiency is driven by the incentive for traders to express their true beliefs.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between the opening price on October 15th and the closing price at 5:00 PM ET. An increase in price will result in a payout for those who predicted ‘Up’, while a decrease will favor those who predicted ‘Down’. The precise price data used for verification will be sourced from publicly available financial data feeds.

Several key events could significantly impact this market before Oct 15, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical developments, including escalating tensions or unexpected political shifts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy could trigger market reactions. Unexpected news regarding major gold-producing countries or significant shifts in currency exchange rates could also play a role in moving the odds.