TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$178

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 4:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$178
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T20:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T20:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market displays the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value by the specified time. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $176. The total volume traded to date is $178. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and track changes in expectations regarding gold’s price trajectory.

Currently, analysts are divided on the near-term direction of gold, with forecasts ranging from moderate gains to potential declines, citing factors like interest rate expectations and geopolitical uncertainty. This market provides a different perspective, aggregating the wisdom of the crowd to produce a probabilistic forecast. While analyst opinions are based on individual research and models, the prediction market reflects a collective assessment of all available information, potentially offering a more accurate signal of what will actually happen with the gold price.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between the opening price on October 15th at 4:30 PM ET and the closing price at 4:45 PM ET. The market will determine whether the price moved up or down during that 15-minute window, and the outcome will be based on that verified price movement.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 15, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, could shift interest rate expectations and influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or surprise policy announcements, often drive investors towards safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, any major news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding quantitative easing or interest rate hikes, could trigger substantial price movements and volatility in this market.