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419,492

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Gold Up or Down - October 15, 2PM-2:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$89

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 2PM-2:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 2PM-2:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 2:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 2PM-2:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$89
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T18:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T18:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market displays the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value between 2PM and 2:15PM ET on October 15th. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, a price history chart showing how probabilities have shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $89. The total volume for this market is $89, indicating overall trader interest. This information helps you gauge market sentiment and track how predictions evolve as new information becomes available.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic indicators and geopolitical factors, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of perspectives and potentially incorporating information not yet reflected in standard analyses. It's common to see discrepancies, particularly in rapidly evolving situations, as traders react quickly to news and adjust their predictions accordingly. This difference highlights the unique value of prediction markets as a forward-looking indicator.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'up' contracts, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds constantly adapt to new information and changing sentiment, providing a real-time assessment of expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 2PM and 2:15PM ET on October 15th. If the price increases during that timeframe, the 'up' outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases, the 'down' outcome will be correct. The precise price change will be verified against trusted financial data sources to ensure an accurate and transparent resolution.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any major announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy could trigger price movements. Shifts in investor sentiment, driven by news headlines or analyst commentary, will also play a role in shaping the odds in this market.