TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 6, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 30, 2026, 8:30 AM EST - Nov 6, 2026, 8:45 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 6, 2026

Time left: 03d:16h:52m

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

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Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity 3 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 16h 52m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-06T13:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-06T13:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market displays the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, alongside a price history chart illustrating how the market has priced the outcome over time. The dashboard also shows the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated gold price movement.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or directional predictions based on economic models, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of perspectives and potential catalysts. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as the market can quickly incorporate new information and react to unforeseen events that analysts might not have fully accounted for. This difference can be particularly noticeable in short-term markets like this one, where unexpected news can have an outsized impact.

This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 8:30 AM and 8:45 AM Eastern Time on November 6th. A definitive increase or decrease will determine the winning outcome. The platform will use established financial data sources to verify the price movement and finalize the results, ensuring a transparent and accurate resolution process for all participants in this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global stability or trade tensions, can also drive investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets like gold. Furthermore, any surprising announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy could trigger a rapid price adjustment. Even unexpected news related to major gold-producing countries or significant shifts in currency exchange rates could influence trading activity in this market.