TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

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4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 6, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 30, 2026, 7:30 AM EST - Nov 6, 2026, 7:45 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 6, 2026

Time left: 03d:11h:06m

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Trade on Predict

Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity 3 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 11h 6m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-06T12:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-06T12:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified time window. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also shows the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This provides a clear picture of market sentiment and activity surrounding this specific event.

Currently, it’s important to note that prediction market odds represent the collective wisdom of traders on Predict, and may diverge from traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges for gold price movements, this market allows for a probabilistic assessment of potential outcomes. Comparing this market to polls and expert opinions reveals whether traders believe the market is under- or overestimating the likelihood of a price increase or decrease. It's a dynamic comparison, as both market odds and analyst forecasts can shift with new information.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current spread between the 'up' and 'down' contracts indicates the level of uncertainty and disagreement among traders. Higher volume generally leads to tighter spreads, suggesting greater confidence in the market’s assessment.

This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 7:30 AM ET and 7:45 AM ET on November 6, 2026. If the price increases during that period, the 'up' outcome will win; if it decreases, the 'down' outcome will win. The precise price change will be verified against established financial data sources to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected conflicts or shifts in international relations, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, changes in currency exchange rates, particularly the US dollar, and any significant news related to gold mining production or global demand could all contribute to price volatility and, consequently, shifts in this market.