TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 6, 6AM-6:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 30, 2026, 6:00 AM EST - Nov 6, 2026, 6:15 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 6AM-6:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 6AM-6:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 6, 2026

Time left: 03d:11h:52m

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 6AM-6:15AM ET

Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity 3 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 6AM-6:15AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 11h 52m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-06T11:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-06T11:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified time window. You'll find a visual representation of the probabilities assigned by traders, along with the total volume traded—currently $0—and the 24-hour volume, which is $0. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity. The dashboard also provides a price history, showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, offering insights into trader expectations.

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the predictions from this market to traditional analyst forecasts. However, prediction markets often aggregate diverse opinions and react quickly to new information, potentially offering a different perspective than typical surveys or individual analyst reports. While analysts may provide point estimates or ranges, this market expresses probabilities, representing the collective belief of traders regarding the likelihood of gold’s price movement. Examining the difference between these approaches can be a valuable exercise when evaluating potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether gold will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that traders assign to the outcome, with higher prices suggesting a greater perceived chance of that outcome occurring. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 6:00 AM ET and 6:15 AM ET on November 6th. If the price is higher at 6:15 AM ET than at 6:00 AM ET, the 'Up' outcome will win; otherwise, the 'Down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 6, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, frequently drive investors towards safe-haven assets like gold. Central bank announcements regarding interest rates or monetary policy could also cause substantial price movements. Finally, major news related to global economic growth or currency fluctuations could shift trader sentiment and alter the probabilities in this market.