TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 6, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 30, 2026, 6:30 AM EST - Nov 6, 2026, 6:45 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 6, 2026

Time left: 03d:12h:18m

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

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Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity 3 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 12h 18m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-06T11:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-06T11:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. The total volume traded to date is $0. This information allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities within this specific market.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly in situations with high uncertainty or unforeseen events. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into market expectations and potential blind spots in conventional analysis, providing a unique view beyond standard financial modeling.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective sentiment of the traders. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by new information, trading activity, and shifts in overall market perception. This dynamic pricing ensures that the odds closely represent the probability of the outcome as perceived by the crowd.

This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the 6:30AM-6:45AM ET window on November 6th. The market will reflect whether the price increased or decreased during that period. The final price change will be verified against credible public sources to determine the winning outcome of this market.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major policy changes, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, shifts in interest rate expectations, currency fluctuations, and even major news regarding central bank activity could all move this market. Any surprise announcements or developments related to global economic stability or safe-haven demand could also trigger substantial price movements.