TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 30, 2026, 5:15 AM EST - Nov 6, 2026, 5:30 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 6, 2026

Time left: 03d:05h:29m

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Trade on Predict

Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity 3 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 5h 29m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-06T10:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-06T10:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of where traders are placing their bets, along with the total volume traded—currently $0—and the 24-hour volume, which stands at $0. This allows you to quickly gauge market sentiment and see how the probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard provides a dynamic view of this market, reflecting the collective predictions of participants.

Currently, it’s difficult to draw direct comparisons between the predictions reflected in this market and traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often offer point estimates or directional guidance on gold prices, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, expressing predictions as probabilities. It’s common to see prediction markets outperform polls or individual expert opinions, as they continuously incorporate new information and adjust expectations. However, it’s important to remember that both approaches have inherent limitations and can be influenced by biases.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately determining the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective assessment of all participants, making it a real-time indicator of market expectations. Trading volume and order flow directly influence the price movements observed within this market.

This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified 5:15AM-5:30AM ET window on November 6th. The direction of the price movement—whether it increases or decreases—will determine the winning outcome. Traders will be able to see the verified result on Predict following the resolution timeframe, and payouts will be distributed accordingly.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global stability or trade tensions, can also drive investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate decisions, are closely watched by the market. Any surprising developments in these areas could lead to substantial shifts in the odds reflected in this market.