TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

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2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 6, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 30, 2026, 4:30 PM EST - Nov 6, 2026, 4:45 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 6, 2026

Time left: 03d:23h:58m

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

Amount

$

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predict

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Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity 3 days to resolution
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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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24h
7d
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 23h 58m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-06T21:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-06T21:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has fluctuated over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This provides a comprehensive overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated price movement of gold.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer specific price targets based on economic indicators and geopolitical events, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of perspectives and potential outcomes. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, risk tolerances, and access to information. It's common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, potentially leading to divergence from initial analyst predictions regarding the direction of the gold price.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately determining the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants trading in this market, offering a real-time assessment of potential price movement. This dynamic pricing allows for quick adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 4:30 PM and 4:45 PM ET on November 6th. An increase in price will determine one outcome, while a decrease will determine the other. The resolution will rely on publicly available data from established financial sources to ensure an objective and verifiable result for this market.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before Nov 6, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected conflicts or shifts in international relations, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, significant currency fluctuations, particularly with the US dollar, and changes in investor sentiment regarding risk appetite could all influence trading activity and the price of contracts in this market.