TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 6, 2AM-2:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 30, 2026, 2:00 AM EST - Nov 6, 2026, 2:15 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 2AM-2:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 2AM-2:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 6, 2026

Time left: 03d:04h:42m

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 2AM-2:15AM ET

Amount

$

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Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity 3 days to resolution
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24h
7d
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 2AM-2:15AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 4h 42m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-06T07:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-06T07:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 2:00 AM and 2:15 AM ET on November 6th. You’ll find a price history chart showing how probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. The total volume for this market is $0. This allows participants to gauge market sentiment and see how much activity is occurring before the event.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend due to geopolitical instability, this market's probabilities suggest a more nuanced outlook. It’s important to remember that prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of many individuals, potentially incorporating information not readily available in standard financial reports. This market provides a real-time assessment of expectations, distinct from static analyst opinions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down within the specified timeframe. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective judgment of participants. Higher demand for 'up' contracts drives up their price, indicating a stronger belief in a price increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism creates a probabilistic forecast of the event’s outcome.

This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 2:00 AM and 2:15 AM ET on November 6th. If the price increases during that period, the 'up' outcome will win; if it decreases, the 'down' outcome will win. The precise price change will be sourced from established financial data providers to ensure an objective determination.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 6, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating conflicts or major political announcements, also tend to drive investment towards safe-haven assets like gold. Furthermore, significant shifts in currency exchange rates, particularly the US dollar, can influence this market. Any surprise announcements related to gold production or demand could also affect trading activity.