TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

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2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 6, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 30, 2026, 2:30 PM EST - Nov 6, 2026, 2:45 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 6, 2026

Time left: 03d:21h:45m

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

Amount

$

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predict

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Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity 3 days to resolution
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 21h 45m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-06T19:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-06T19:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value by the specified time. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has priced the outcome over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. The total volume traded on this market is $0, indicating the level of interest from forecasters. This allows you to see how sentiment shifts as new information becomes available.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are providing price targets for gold, this market represents a collective judgment of all participants, weighted by how much they’ve wagered. This can lead to divergences, as the market incorporates a wider range of information and perspectives than a single analyst report. It’s common to see discrepancies between what experts predict and what traders are willing to bet on in this market, providing a unique signal.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective forecast of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'up' contract, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism creates a real-time probability assessment of the event's outcome.

This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between the opening price at 2:30 PM ET on November 6th and the closing price at 2:45 PM ET on the same day. The direction of that price change – up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market. The precise price source will be a widely-recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Nov 6, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global stability or major political announcements, can also drive investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve or other central banks could influence the market. Any surprise news related to major gold-holding nations or significant shifts in currency valuations could also play a role.