TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 30, 2026, 1:30 PM EST - Nov 6, 2026, 1:45 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 6, 2026

Time left: 03d:18h:20m

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

Amount

$

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predict

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Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity 3 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 18h 20m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-06T18:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-06T18:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value by November 6th. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. The total volume traded to date is $0. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to short-term gold price fluctuations.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are issuing predictions about gold’s trajectory, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their mouth is. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market diverge from polls or expert opinions, particularly when anticipating events with high uncertainty or complex underlying factors influencing the price of gold.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants, offering a dynamic view of expectations for the gold market. Traders adjust their positions based on new information and their own analysis, influencing the market price.

This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 1:30 PM and 1:45 PM ET on November 6th. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will win; if it decreases, the 'Down' outcome will prevail. The final price movement will be sourced from established financial data providers to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Nov 6, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected political instability or shifts in international trade relations, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rates, are closely watched by gold traders. Any surprise announcements or unforeseen circumstances could lead to substantial shifts in the odds for this market.