TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$323,326,361

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,969,435,260

419,363

Markets across

40,411

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 30, 2026, 12:15 AM EST - Nov 6, 2026, 12:30 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 6, 2026

Time left: 03d:02h:48m

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

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Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity 3 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 2h 48m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-06T05:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-06T05:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. You’ll also find the total volume traded in this market, currently at $0, and the 24-hour volume, which is $0. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to the anticipated direction of the gold price.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts rely on economic indicators and geopolitical events to predict gold price movements, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of information and potential catalysts. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can quickly incorporate new information and react to unexpected developments in a way that traditional forecasts might not. This difference can be insightful for understanding overall market expectations.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether gold will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective judgment of market participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that the market assigns to a specific outcome, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood of that outcome occurring. Trading volume and order flow directly influence the price discovery process.

This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 12:15 AM and 12:30 AM ET on November 6th. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The precise price change will be verified against established financial data sources.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 6, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often have a substantial impact on gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Unexpected news regarding central bank gold reserves or significant shifts in global currency exchange rates could also cause considerable price fluctuations and, consequently, movement in this market.